New Delhi, June 14 -- SEATTLE - The casino number sitting next to Australia's name is +460. In the language of American sportsbooks, that means the Socceroos are a long shot - the kind of team you back if you want a story to tell Monday morning, not a reliable return on investment. The USMNT is listed at -176, a heavy favorite that reflects both the home-soil advantage and a 4-1 demolition of Paraguay last week that made the whole country feel, briefly, like a soccer nation.

But casino odds are a starting point, not a verdict. They reflect public money, name recognition, and the lingering glow of Folarin Balogun's brace against Paraguay more than they reflect what Tony Popovic's Australia actually did in Vancouver on Saturday night. And ...