France, April 8 -- Much of the election campaign has been defined by a clash of narratives. While Orban warns of instability, war and foreign interference, Magyar is focused on corruption, rising prices and what he says is the capture of the state by a small governing circle.

Independent polls have for months suggested that Magyar's Tisza movement is ahead, but the result is likely to hinge on turnout - especially in the countryside, where Orban remains dominant and his Fidesz party can still rely on grassroots support. 

Media coverage is also a factor, with Orban and Fidesz controlling Hungary's state-owned media. 

According to Marius Dragomir, director of the Media and Journalism Research Center at Spain's Univ...