Nigeria, Aug. 17 -- Politics often creates the illusion that public anger naturally produces political change. It does not. Citizens may be frustrated by rising prices, insecurity, unemployment, corruption or failing public services and still return an unpopular government to power. Governments do not lose elections simply because people are unhappy. They lose when dissatisfaction is organised, when a credible alternative emerges, and when anger is converted into registration, mobilisation, turnout and votes.

Nigeria's present political moment is defined by a simple reality: the winds of change are blowing, but they do not yet decisively favour the opposition. The winds of change are unmistakably blowing, but they do not yet decisively f...