Nigeria, Feb. 23 -- The resurgence of coups in the West African subregion, exemplified by the coup in Guinea-Bissau and the thwarted coup in the Republic of Benin, indicates a decline of political legitimacy, a breakdown of constitutional order and a probable regional disintegration.

On 26 November 2025, Guinea-Bissau became the fifth country out of 15 in the subregion to come under military rule since 2020, marking a significant expansion of the coup belt. This expansion arguably indicates a breakdown in public trust in the administrative capabilities of civilian governments.

According to Ornella Moderan and Fahiraman Kone of the Institute for Security Studies, in a 2022 article, increasing coups reflect a major crisis in West Africa's...