India, March 25 -- The sinking of the Iranian warship IRIS Dena in the Indian Ocean after a US strike may appear at first glance to be a limited military episode. However, maritime history suggests that events like this often function as early signals of larger geopolitical shifts.

For centuries, these waters formed one of the most stable trading environments in world history. Long before the rise of European empires, merchants navigated the monsoon system connecting the Persian Gulf, the western coast of India, East Africa and Southeast Asia. Horses from Arabia, textiles from Gujarat and spices from the Indonesian archipelago moved across these routes. Even the Portuguese, Dutch and British empires largely focused on controlling strateg...