India, April 21 -- El Niño is likely to result in a poor monsoon, which could trigger a ripple effect - from farm distress to food inflation, testing both policy preparedness and rural resilience

The past few years have been good for Indian agriculture; a normal monsoon and favourable weather conditions have given the agriculture sector the respite it needed. However, the chances of a good monsoon this year are bleak. Thanks to El Niño, India is likely to experience a below-average monsoon. While official projections suggest rainfall at around 92 per cent of the long-period average, this may not look like a big drop, but in practice, even a marginal shortfall can translate into severe distress when rains are erratic, delayed, o...