India, Oct. 27 -- The war in the Gulf is now in its ninth month. It began on February 28, the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed since March, and a US counter-blockade has squeezed Iranian oil exports.

This week, as President Trump hinted at fresh strikes and a US envoy said one could come this weekend, Iran threatened the undersea cables that carry the Gulf's data. Brent crude briefly crossed $117, a five-month high, before a single new shot had been fired. The market is no longer pricing the war. It is pricing the next phase of it.

The usual question is whether Washington or Tehran will blink. A better one is whose interests this stalemate serves, and who is paying for it.

A war of claims

Begin with what is contested. Iran...