New Delhi, June 4 -- The long-awaited monsoon may have missed its June 1 arrival in Kerala, but a deeper anxiety is now gripping the country.

The outlook for the 2026 southwest monsoon has turned grim after the India Meteorological Department (IMD) downgraded its seasonal rainfall forecast to 90% of the long period average (LPA), from 92% in April. Though still technically classified as 'below normal', this revision signals a much higher risk of a severe deficit. Coming on the heels of a strong 2025 season, this marks India's weakest monsoon forecast since 2015.

Driving this grim outlook is the IMD's projection that the neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are expected to transition towards El Niño during the...