New Delhi, June 8 -- The global energy state of play 100 days into the worst supply shock in modern history has confounded analysts and investors alike.

On one hand, many of the early calls were right. Shares of top U.S. refiners, such as Marathon Petroleum and Valero Energy, have rallied 25-30% as the Iran war disrupted supplies of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel even more severely than it did crude oil.

U.S. petrochemical producers, such as LyondellBasell Industries and Dow, initially gained as Middle Eastern outages allowed them to raise prices for the first time in years.

Oil prices that have risen $30 per barrel from prewar levels strengthened cash flow for upstream producers, including Diamondback Energy, even though shale compani...