New Delhi, Dec. 2 -- This has been a bumpy year for the American economy. Although there was a massive boom in artificial intelligence (AI)-related investments, uncertainties caused by US President Donald Trump's tariffs and other polices curtailed growth in the second half of the year, and disruptions to official employment and inflation data as a result of America's longest-ever government shutdown have further clouded policymakers' perceptions. The big question now is what 2026 will bring.

There are three possible scenarios.

In the baseline case, the US will suffer a growth recession (meaning below-trend gross domestic product, or GDP, growth) for a few months, followed by a recovery and a gradual decline in the inflation rate toward...