New Delhi, Jan. 8 -- The unfolding crisis in Venezuela draws into sharp relief a less-recognized feature of the modern global economy: the movement of expectations often matters more than that of physical goods.

Venezuela has long been a distant yet symbolically important pillar of India's energy security framework. Actual Venezuelan crude-oil imports into India have been negligible of late, constrained as they are by US sanctions, under-investment and systemic decay.

Yet, the current turmoil is already affecting us-not through tankers arriving at our ports, but via shifts in market psychology and geopolitical signalling.

Global markets do not price commodities based on today's supply alone, but also on the perceived risk of tomorrow's...