New Delhi, March 19 -- The West Asia conflict has disrupted gas supplies, tightening a key input for fertilizers and exposing India's deeper import dependence. While finished fertilizer imports meet about 30% of demand, reliance rises to nearly 70% when inputs like gas and phosphates are included.

Supplies are vulnerable as a large share of global trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, with around 30% of India's imports sourced from the region.

In the near term, buffer stocks offer relief. But prolonged disruption could hit domestic output, push up global prices and inflate India's subsidy bill, as seen during the Russia-Ukraine war.

While subsidies shield farmers, the fiscal burden rises and risks spilling into food inflation. The...