New Delhi, July 9 -- Rainfall last week came as good news for Indian agriculture staring at one of the worst droughts of this century. June ended with a 40% deficit in rainfall, which was the fifth worst in more than century. Better-than-usual rain in July has reduced this deficit to 17%, as of 8 July.

That said, the predictions are not optimistic. The India Meteorological Department has forecast rains at 94% of the normal level at best. June covers roughly 19% of the monsoon season rainfall (June-September), while July covers almost 32%.

What matters for Indian agriculture, which still relies on seasonal rainfall to a great extent since irrigation covers only half of India's cultivated land, is not just the aggregate quantum of rainfal...