New Delhi, March 31 -- The dollar has been winning against gold. Since the start of the Iran war on 28 February, the dollar has strengthened against most major currencies. In an earlier oped in Mint on 9 March (bit.ly/413F9Ry), I delved into the anomalous trend of the dollar strengthening by 1.5% and gold weakening by 1%. Since then, the dollar index has gained a further 1.1% while gold has fallen by a further 15%.

Given the competing narratives on the war's trajectory, it is difficult to fathom how the scales will eventually tilt. One may guess that America's 'Ashvamedha run' has not gone by plan; The Economist's latest cover story is titled 'Advantage Iran'. However, if one undertakes a dispassionate analysis of the direction of curren...