New Delhi, July 7 -- The Indian stock market has delivered little meaningful return over the past two years, but global brokerage Morgan Stanley believes the benchmark BSE Sensex has a 25% probability of reaching the 1,00,000 mark over the next 12 months under its bullish scenario.

In a report, Morgan Stanley's India equity strategist Ridham Desai outlined three possible outcomes for the market over the coming year, assigning a 25% probability to its bull case, a 50% probability to its base case, and a 25% probability to its bear case.

Under its bullish scenario, Morgan Stanley expects the Sensex to climb to 1,00,000, supported by Brent crude oil prices remaining below $80 per barrel, improving India's terms of trade, and reflationary p...