New Delhi, April 16 -- Two data releases on 13 April held important messages for the government on ensuring food security and shielding the livelihood of citizens. First, inflation estimates released by India's ministry of statistics for March suggest food inflation is rising faster than overall inflation. Second, early monsoon forecasts point to a high likelihood of deficient rains in 2026.

Based on the 2024 series, overall inflation increased to 3.4% last month, with rural inflation at 3.6% and urban at 3.1%. Food inflation was placed at 3.9% (4% in rural India and 3.7% in urban areas).

The trend of India's food inflation outpacing overall inflation has firmed up since January, when overall food inflation was 2.1% (2% rural and 2.4% u...