New Delhi, March 17 -- When US President Donald Trump announced the setting up of a refinery in partnership with Reliance Industries Ltd. last week, it came with a headline figure of $300 billion. While Reliance hasn't offered any comment so far, the few details released by America First Refining (AFR), the US company fronting the project, are revealing.

The actual arithmetic behind the eye-popping number is modest. Reliance will purchase 1.2 billion barrels of American shale oil worth roughly $125 billion at prevailing prices over 20 years, with the refined output valued at another $175 billion. Effectively, the $300 billion is a projected two-decade commercial flow.

AFR's chairman put the construction cost of the facility in Brownsvil...