New Delhi, June 2 -- In many ways, the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) June policy will be the calm before the storm that's expected to hit the economy on multiple fronts.

The first of these is inflation, with a surge in input cost pressures expected for producers across fuels, chemicals, metals, and so on. The jump in wholesale price index (WPI) inflation to a 42-month high in April has put everyone on high alert for a potential surge in consumer price index (CPI) inflation.

One major saving grace has been the limited pass-through of the fuel price shock to consumers, which has kept CPI inflation below the RBI's 4% target. Only in May were retail petrol and diesel prices increased, passing some of the burden to consumers.

Moreover, El...