New Delhi, June 3 -- The ebbs and flows of information pertaining to the West Asia conflict have induced significant volatility in views on India's macroeconomic outcomes over the past three months.

The shelf life of macro forecasts has become painfully short, and while revisions thereof have largely been of the undesirable kind so far, sustained positive news flows, such as those seen over the last few days, may lead to a reversal in these trends. This backdrop makes the Monetary Policy Committee's (MPC) upcoming policy decision particularly challenging.

Retail inflation has been relatively well-behaved so far. CPI inflation only inched up from 3.2% in February 2026 to 3.5% in April 2026, largely on account of a base-effect-led hardeni...