New Delhi, Aug. 18 -- The trajectory of the southwest monsoon has been uneven so far, with rainfall standing 13% below the long period average (LPA) as of 16 Aug 2026. While the cumulative deficit narrowed sharply from 39.8% at the end of June, this overall improvement masks an increasingly erratic pattern marked by severe extremes.

June and July saw monsoon activity swing wildly between prolonged dry spells and brief bursts of heavy downpours. Following a patchy start-where only around 20% of the country received normal rainfall in any given week of June- July brought a partial revival.

However, this recovery was far from a broad-based recovery: only about 20% of the nation saw normal rainfall during the first two weeks of July. That f...