New Delhi, June 2 -- June is generally a positive month for the Indian benchmark Nifty 50 index. In six of 10 last occasions over the past decade, the index has delivered a positive return. Notably, in the last three years, June has generated gains of over 3% each. In fact, barring June 2022, when Nifty fell 4.85%, the index has consistently ended the month in the green, suggesting a supportive seasonal trend.

This time, the macro and geopolitical environment is different. The conflict between the US and Iran, which is now in its fourth month, has led to an energy shock. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key passage for global oil and gas needs, has put crude oil prices on a boil. Widely tracked Brent futures are currently at $95 pe...