New Delhi, March 17 -- India's recent run of subdued inflation may be staring at an end. Data released on Monday showed wholesale inflation hitting an 11-month high of 2.1% from a year earlier in February. Consumer inflation, measured by a reset gauge, was 3.2% last month.

Both these readings are within the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) comfort zone, the latter more pertinently, given that it is the target variable for its monetary policy goal of price stability. Retail inflation below the 4% mid-point of its target range was good news.

But what matters are upcoming readings, which will lose a favourable base effect just as the Iran war turns energy prices volatile. Crude oil prices have already soared past $100 a barrel and could rise ...