New Delhi, Sept. 5 -- In a 2022 paper, I introduced an allegory I called the Incarceration Game-an academic exercise that explores how authoritarian leaders consolidate power through increasingly oppressive tactics. My analysis drew inspiration from a 1948 paper on the so-called 'surprise test paradox,' which showed how rational expectations can unravel under certain conditions. Today, US President Donald Trump, grappling with waning public support, seems determined to follow this authoritarian playbook.

The most striking example is the Trump administration's attempt to bring mortgage fraud charges against prominent critics-most notably Federal Reserve Board of Governors member Lisa Cook, Democratic US Senator Adam Schiff and New York At...