New Delhi, March 18 -- The repercussions of the Iran war that began on Feb. 28 might last longer than expected, even if military operations end in a few weeks. This risk isn't fully priced into oil, equities, or options volatility.

Investors must contemplate the potential of violent price fluctuations if the shipping industry fails to quickly return to normal tempos. That could cause the markets to pull back on fears oil prices could surge even more.

Iran has already surprised some military and intelligence strategists by shuttering the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most important oil choke point. It was expected to allow ships to pass because some 80% of Iran's revenue comes from oil sold to China via that shipping lane. The income is ...