New Delhi, July 14 -- An erratic monsoon and rising food prices are emerging as fresh risks to India's economy just as renewed tensions in West Asia threaten to push up crude oil prices and disrupt global supply chains.

Driven by rising food prices, consumer price index (CPI)-based retail inflation accelerated to 4.38% in June from 3.93% in May, breaching the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) medium-term target of 4% for the first time since January 2025-and the first time since the new CPI series was introduced in January 2026.

The June inflation print also exceeded the 4.2% median estimate in a Mint poll of 18 economists. Economists expect inflation to remain elevated in July as well.

Alongside, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) ...