New Delhi, July 31 -- India is heading into the most critical phase of the monsoon with the weather office forecasting below-normal rainfall through August and September, raising fresh risks for kharif crops, food inflation and rural demand.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday said India is likely to receive less than 94% of the Long Period Average (LPA) rainfall during the second half of the June-September monsoon season. The August-September LPA, based on the 1971-2020 climatological record, is 422.8 mm.

The forecast follows a volatile start to the southwest monsoon. June rainfall was 35.4% below the LPA before rebounding to 1% above normal in July, when the country received 283.3 mm against the normal 280.5 mm, despit...