New Delhi, April 5 -- Amid daily price swings in crude oil, based on what the US or Iran says on a given day, global growth prospects for 2026 appear grim. Even if the war ends within days, rebuilding energy infrastructure in West Asia, battered by bombings and drone attacks, will take months if not years. Economies will find alternatives, but those won't be cheap.

Meanwhile, elevated fuel prices will affect demand, and therefore demand for foreign goods. Beyond essentials, demand for discretionary items-spending that households can cut back on in difficult times-could take a hit, directly affecting trade across the globe.

Ironically, at the start of the year, a range of observers and analysts, including the International Energy Agency ...