NEW DELHI, March 18 -- The West Asia conflict has disrupted India's gas supplies, tightening a critical feedstock for fertilizers and exposing a deeper vulnerability in the country's supply chain. The immediate risk is to domestic production and imports; the eventual impact is on subsidy costs and inflation.

As gas availability shrinks, fertilizer output is likely to come under pressure even as supplies from the region face disruption. While government policy shields farmers from price volatility, higher global prices feed directly into the subsidy bill. The experience of the Russia-Ukraine war showed how such shocks can also spill into food inflation.

India appears less import-dependent in fertilizers than in energy. Oil import depende...