New Delhi, May 25 -- This piece has been updated to reflect Mr Trump's decision to delay his threatened strikes against Iranian infrastructure.

The third Gulf war will soon be in its fifth week. Every day that Iran keeps the Strait of Hormuz shut, around a fifth of the world's output of oil and liquefied natural gas (lng) remains stranded. And every day, traders update how much supply is lost for the year. As their estimates rise, so do energy prices. Brent crude, at $105 a barrel, is 45% dearer than before hostilities began. Gas prices in Europe are up by 65%.

The reason they aren't higher is that investors expect flows to resume soon. Financial bets that prices will fall ("put" options) are clustered around $80 a barrel for July; bets...