New Delhi, June 3 -- The global backdrop has been unusually crowded with cross-currents. Geopolitical unrest, sticky inflation in several pockets, erratic commodity cycles and elongated interest-rate cycles dominate investor minds. Tariff policy is once again reshaping global trade flows, with second-order effects on Indian exporters and supply-chain beneficiaries.

Artificial intelligence (AI)-driven concentration has pushed the US and some emerging-market indices (like Taiwan's and South Korea's) to multi-decade highs, with only a handful of mega-caps driving a disproportionate share of returns.

Crude oil is a structural variable for India, with every $10 move in its price materially impacting our import bill, the rupee and inflation e...