New Delhi, Aug. 2 -- With 2026 declared an El Niño year, all eyes are on the progress of the monsoon across the Indian subcontinent. June ended with rainfall about 40% below the long-term average. July, the most crucial month for kharif sowing, brought a sharp improvement, narrowing the deficit to 16%.

Although El Niño years have often coincided with lower output of key crops, other atmospheric factors also influence agricultural outcomes. More importantly, over-indexing on El Niño risks overlooking longer-term structural challenges facing Indian agriculture, including climate change, rising pest resistance and gradual soil degradation.

Indian agriculture has two cropping seasons: kharif and rabi. The kharif season runs f...