New Delhi, Jan. 31 -- Dear reader,

As finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman prepares her ninth consecutive Union budget, India appears to be in an enviable place. Growth is strong, inflation is low, and the economy is outperforming much of the world. But this calm comes against a noisy backdrop: a fractured global order, tariff wars, and geopolitical shocks that are reshaping trade and capital flows. The budget will have to look outward and inward at the same time.

On the surface, the story is reassuring. At 7.4%, India remains the world's fastest-growing large economy. Fiscal discipline has improved steadily, public investment has surged, and infrastructure spending has become the backbone of growth. Yet the undercurrents are harder to i...