Barry Eichengreen: Okay, so America has escaped a recession-but only by the skin of its teeth
New Delhi, Aug. 16 -- Exhibiting an apparently limitless ability to shrug off bad news, the US economy continues to motor ahead. Real or inflation-adjusted GDP grew at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.1% in the first quarter of this year and, according to an advance estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, by 1.5% in the second quarter.
Both figures are close to the US Federal Reserve's own estimate of the economy's long-run potential growth rate of 2%.
The economy has appeared resilient despite an exceptional series of adverse shocks, from the April 2025 'Liberation Day' tariffs and ongoing tariff uncertainty to US President Donald Trump's political attacks on the Fed.
Meanwhile, US-China tensions have depressed bilateral ...
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