New Delhi, July 19 -- Apart from the West Asia crisis, progress of the monsoon is a critical factor affecting the view on India's economy. Rainfall in June was in a 40% deficit, raising concerns around agricultural production and overall economic growth.

While rainfall has improved markedly in July, its cumulative figure remains in deficit. Poor rainfall has resulted in a decline in kharif crop sowing of 16% (as of 10 July) compared to the previous year.

Rainfall in the coming months will be critical as July and August together receive about 60% of the total seasonal rainfall. Given the impact of El Niño this year, the India Meteorological Department has projected a sub-normal monsoon at 90% of the long-term average.

While monsoon...