New Delhi, Sept. 4 -- Just what the world needs right now: Russia and Ukraine bombing the heck out of each other's grain export facilities.

The Black Sea, from Russia's ports at Novorossiysk and Tuapse to Ukraine's Odesa, is the Strait of Hormuz of wheat, only more so. Russia alone accounts for a quarter of global wheat exports in a normal year, Ukraine another 10%, says Matt Darragh, grains and oilseeds analyst at consultant Kpler. This year won't be normal.

The ex-Soviet neighbors expanded their air war to grain-related targets over the summer, just in time for the harvest. Ukraine's exports were 20% of last year's in the first half of August, Kyiv reported. Russia's have fallen by half, according to consultant Sovecon.

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