New Delhi, April 13 -- The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday predicted a below-normal monsoon in 2026, expected at 92% of the 50-year average. Deficit rainfall not only disrupts agricultural production but also triggers a ripple effect across rural incomes, inflation, and overall economic growth, highlighting the sector's continued dependence on the monsoon.

The forecast is with a model error of plus and minus 5%. Last year in April, it had predicted monsoon to be almost 105% of the long-period average (LPA), while the actual rains were 108% of the LPA.

The LPA of the season rainfall over the country for 1971-2020 was 87 cm. Rainfall of 96-104% of the LPA is considered normal.

Adequate rainfall is crucial for India's agri...