New Delhi, Oct. 18 -- According to a recent news report, the "principal challenge" and impediment in planning Bangladesh Prime Minister Tarique Rahman's visit to India are the "activities" of ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and leaders of her party, currently in India. Foreign Affairs State Minister of Bangladesh, Humaiun Kobir, said that India needed to realise "the challenges facing the newly elected government". He was also critical of the activities of leaders of the Awami League (AL) operating from abroad.
Urging India to restrain Sheikh Hasina and her exiled party leaders, Humaiun Kobir also said that the visit will be bilateral, but there are still some challenges. The Minister further alleged that Sheikh Hasina and her team staying in Delhi are trying to destabilise another country. He also accused Sheikh Hasina of being responsible for the deaths of nearly 2,000 Bangladeshi citizens during the suppression of the July-August 2024 uprising and described her as "a terrorist".
On the other hand, describing relations with India as a priority for Dhaka, Humaiun Kobir averred that Bangladesh was seeing some positive signs as India is trying to restrain them. If they (Hasina and her team) are restrained, then there will be no problem in the relationship. The Minister reiterated that Bangladesh would not allow anyone to operate from Dhaka against India's interests and he expected India to take similar steps.
Meanwhile, in a Hasina-related development, her latest intervention from exile has transformed December into a focal point of political speculation, legal debate, and diplomatic activities about her return to Dhaka. Speaking through an audio message at a seminar organised by the Global Centre for Democratic Governance (GCDG) in London (October 1), Hasina disclosed that she was prepared to return to Bangladesh even if that meant facing execution.
The central obstacle to Hasina's proposed return is not political will but a legal issue. During the London seminar, she acknowledged that her passport had been cancelled by the Bangladesh authorities, forcing her to seek alternative legal options. Since she currently resides in India, questions surrounding asylum and legal dynamics governing cooperation between Dhaka and New Delhi remain. In practical terms, Hasina's return is no longer solely a political decision; it is a matter governed by international agreements, bilateral obligations, and domestic legal proceedings.
India, according to many Bangladeshi watchers, is central to the issue of Hasina's return. The recent comments by India's HC to Bangladesh, Dinesh Trivedi, are particularly revealing. The HC stated that India had "hardly any choice" but to allow the aircraft carrying Sheikh Hasina to land when she arrived in August 2024 and refusing entry would have created a far more complex situation. India, on its part, seems to be emphasising legal procedures and bilateral engagements. This approach aligns with recent diplomatic activity between the two countries, including the meeting between Indian High Commissioner Dinesh Trivedi and Bangladesh's Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Humaiun Kobir, where both sides publicly emphasised continued bilateral cooperation.
Meanwhile, according to Vaishali Basu Sharma, a security and economic affairs analyst, the United States has adopted a noticeably restrained posture. Washington has neither advocated for Hasina's return nor opposed the legal restrictions imposed on the AL. Instead, senior US officials have emphasised that the matter should be resolved by Bangladesh and India. As a result, Bangladesh's political future looks to be shaped by three interconnected developments. First, the outcome of legal proceedings against Hasina and other AL leaders. Second, India's eventual position regarding her status and possible return. Third, the ability of the AL to maintain political relevance despite organisational restrictions. Viewed through this prism, December is not simply about whether Sheikh Hasina returns; it is about whether her return becomes a catalyst for political resurgence, a moment of legal reckoning, or a test of regional diplomacy.
Having said this, it would appear that the Bangladesh establishment is not yet ready with any firm contingency plan in case Hasina lands in Dhaka in December. The government is also possibly contemplating various options in the event of her arrest leading to law-and-order complexities, as the mood and public ire against Hasina are still in the air. Also, if actions on the part of Tarique Rahman are seen as lenient in any way, it would not only act as a detriment to his political position but also give a chance to the party cadres and religious hardliners, especially Jamaat, to interpret and publicise that Tarique Rahman is caving in to Indian pressure.
These factors are inescapable in the context of existing Indo-Bangladesh ties, which do not seem to be at their best at this moment, though diplomatic efforts are underway to normalise them.
Views expressed are personal. The writer is a retired IPS officer, Adviser NatStrat
Published by HT Digital Content Services with permission from Millennium Post.