New Delhi, Nov. 3 -- In the run-up to the forthcoming elections, scheduled to be held in Bangladesh in February next year, a series of political and diplomatic developments have emerged - some carrying distinct implications for India. Notably, there has been no let-up in Bangladesh's attempts to come closer to Pakistan and vice versa. Overtures from both sides over the past year, especially after Sheikh Hasina's exit from the political scene, suggest a new phase of bonhomie unseen in decades.
The developments span politics, the military, culture, and trade. Bangladesh has extended several concessions to Pakistan, including reductions in cess duties on imports, while Pakistan has reciprocated in equal measure. Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus has met Pakistani leaders on multiple occasions at international fora, and their cordial body language reflects a renewed warmth. Earlier, a top-level Bangladeshi military delegation, comprising both Army and Naval officers, had also visited Pakistan. This growing military and political cooperation, and in some instances collaboration, warrants close monitoring by Indian agencies for timely vigilance.
In a recent development, General Sahir Shamshad Mirza, Chairman of Pakistan's Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee, visited Bangladesh and called on Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus at the State Guest House on October 25. During their meeting, they discussed a wide range of issues concerning Bangladesh-Pakistan relations, including the growing importance of bilateral trade, investment, and defence cooperation.
General Mirza emphasised the shared historical, cultural, and people-to-people ties between the two countries and expressed Pakistan's desire to strengthen cooperation in multiple sectors. He highlighted the potential for expanding trade and connectivity, citing the launch of a two-way shipping route between Karachi and Chittagong and the proposed opening of a Dhaka-Karachi air route within months. Both sides also underlined the need to de-escalate tensions in the Middle East and Europe and discussed the growing challenge of misinformation and the misuse of social media by non-state actors to undermine peace and stability.
Chief Adviser Yunus, on his part, observed that fake news and disinformation have flooded social media and are being used to sow chaos. He called for a concerted global effort to combat this menace. National Security Adviser Dr Khalilur Rahman, Senior Secretary, and Pakistan's High Commissioner to Bangladesh, Imran Haider, were also present during the meeting.
Judging by the tone and content of this interaction, it is evident that Pakistan and Bangladesh continue to draw closer. The visit of such a high-profile Pakistani military official should not be missed by Indian observers. Pakistan's record of anti-India rhetoric and activities from Bangladeshi soil makes this development particularly significant for regional security watchers.
In a separate but politically consequential move, Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) Acting Chairman Tarique Rahman announced on October 25 that if his party is voted to power, it will prioritise education by giving the sector the highest budget allocation. He recalled that during Khaleda Zia's tenure, education received top priority in the national budget.
Addressing the Khandaker Shamsul Alam Foundation's Merit Scholarship Examination and Prize Distribution Ceremony virtually from London, Tarique said the BNP plans to repair and upgrade dilapidated schools to ensure better learning environments for students. He also promised increased social and economic support for teachers so that they can focus wholeheartedly on education.
Tarique expressed hope that upon his return to Bangladesh before the elections, he would meet face-to-face with the youth to discuss how to rebuild and advance the country together. His sermon-like message to students was atypical for him, and his emphasis on education was equally unusual - both indicating that he is in full election mode.
Tarique's latest statements suggest two clear goals. First, his declared intent to return to Bangladesh before the elections, and second, his outreach to the educated class, signalling an attempt to woo intellectuals and professionals who had largely aligned with the Awami League (AL). With the AL absent from the political fray, Tarique perhaps fears that a section of this vote base could drift toward the Jamaat, whose student wing - Islami Chhatra Shibir (ICS) - performed well in recent student elections. His rhetoric, therefore, appears designed to position the BNP as a credible alternative among the urban, educated electorate.
Meanwhile, The Daily Star, in an editorial on October 24 by its Editor-in-Chief, Mahfuz Anam, reflected on Muhammad Yunus's stewardship of the interim government. The paper recalled that when Yunus agreed to take charge, the people of Bangladesh had heaved a sigh of relief. Though lacking administrative experience, Yunus's reputation as founder of the Nobel-winning Grameen Bank inspired confidence. His institution, known for its high standards of governance, transparency, and ethical conduct, had long symbolised credibility.
However, after nearly fourteen months in office, Yunus's performance as Chief Adviser has raised serious questions, doubts, and uncertainties. Anam observed that Yunus could have chosen a more capable team and erred in not recalibrating his cabinet - reshuffling only one or two portfolios under special circumstances. Most heads of government, he noted, reorganise their cabinets when time is short and expectations are high. Yet despite his shortcomings, Yunus remains an acceptable, if somewhat diminished, choice to lead the government. The Daily Star's editorial stance has been broadly sympathetic toward Yunus, perhaps by default, given its opposition to the previous regime.
The editorial also referred to Yunus's recent announcement of the July National Charter (JNC), the product of a student-led uprising that overthrew what he called an "oppressive regime." The Charter is intended to provide a new vision for Bangladesh - one founded on rights, non-discrimination, and democratic freedoms. Yunus described this transition as moving "from barbarism into civilisation."
This phrase, however, drew sharp criticism from Anam, who argued that the wording was excessive and could be misinterpreted as dismissing the entire post-independence history of Bangladesh. "As a freedom fighter," Anam wrote, "I cannot accept such a sweeping condemnation. What kind of people does it make us out to be? What global image does it create?" While acknowledging the failures of past governments, he questioned whether they justified calling the nation's entire history "barbaric."
Nonetheless, Anam also conceded that forging a consensus among Bangladesh's diverse political parties - across eighty-four key issues demanding redirection - was no small feat. He credited the interim government and the Consensus Commission for this achievement, even as he lamented the government's poor follow-through on implementation, which has already eroded public confidence.
Taken together, these developments - the Pakistani general's visit, Tarique Rahman's political messaging, and the evolving tone of the media - paint a picture of a Bangladesh in flux. The country appears to be recalibrating its alliances, redefining its leadership narratives, and repositioning its social discourse as it heads toward the 2025 elections.
For India, these shifts merit careful attention. The deepening ties between Dhaka and Islamabad, coupled with domestic political realignments, could alter the regional balance in subtle but lasting ways. Bangladesh stands at a critical crossroads - one that will test not only its democratic resilience but also the diplomatic agility of its neighbours.
Views expressed are personal. The writer is a retired IPS officer, Adviser NatStrat, and a former National Security Advisor in Mauritius
Published by HT Digital Content Services with permission from Millennium Post.