New Delhi, Sept. 30 -- India received 87.4 per cent of its long period average (LPA) rainfall during the June-September monsoon season, making this the fourth-lowest monsoon rainfall recorded since 2001, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Wednesday.
The country received 759.4 mm of rain during the four-month season, compared with the normal 868.6 mm, leaving a deficit of 13 per cent. The shortfall was linked in part to El Nino conditions over the tropical Pacific, which emerged in June and have strengthened since then.
The IMD said strong El Nino conditions are currently prevailing and could continue until March 2027. El Nino, one of the phases of the El Nino Southern Oscillation, is generally associated with reduced monsoon rainfall over India, while La Nina, its opposite phase, tends to have a cooling effect.
Rainfall was below normal in three of the four monsoon months. June recorded the largest deficit at 35.4 per cent, followed by August at 16.3 per cent and September at 7.6 per cent. July was the only month to receive above-normal rainfall, with a surplus of one per cent. The seasonal outcome was also lower than the IMD's own forecasts. On May 29, the weather department had projected rainfall at 90 per cent of the LPA, with a model error of 4 per cent. Its earlier forecast, issued on April 13, had put the expected rainfall at 92 per cent of the LPA.
IMD Director General of Meteorology Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said the rainfall deficit could have been larger without the formation of several low-pressure systems during the season.
"There were 14 low-pressure systems that formed this season, and 77 low-pressure system days were witnessed against the normal 57 days," Mohapatra said. These systems brought additional rainfall to several parts of the country and helped limit the overall seasonal shortfall.
The monsoon has also begun its withdrawal from northern and western parts of the country. According to Mohapatra, it has so far retreated from most parts of Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan, the whole of Delhi, and some parts of Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat.
The IMD said conditions are favourable for the monsoon to withdraw from most parts of central and northwest India during the first week of October. Withdrawal from most parts of eastern and northeastern India and some areas of north peninsular India is expected during the second week.
Looking ahead, the weather department has forecast below-normal rainfall for October. Mohapatra said average rainfall across the country during the month is likely to be 85 per cent of the LPA. The LPA for October, calculated using rainfall data from 1971 to 2020, is about 75.4 mm. Most parts of the country are expected to receive below-normal rainfall, although some areas of northwest India, southern parts of peninsular India and isolated areas of eastern India could receive normal to above-normal rainfall.
The IMD also expects both maximum and minimum temperatures to remain above normal during October.
LPA refers to the average rainfall recorded over a region during a specified period, calculated over a long-term period, generally spanning several decades.
Published by HT Digital Content Services with permission from Millennium Post.