New Delhi, Sept. 3 -- On August 26, devastating flash floods struck Nepal, which - according to preliminary reports - were triggered by an avalanche of ice and rocks near the Nepal-Tibet border. As of Thursday, the death toll in Nepal stood at 1,252, while 4,216 people remained missing or out of contact, according to Nepal's National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA). In neighbouring Tibet, Chinese authorities have reported 21 deaths and 541 people missing, taking the combined toll to 1,273 dead and 4,757 missing. Rescuers are rushing to find flood survivors trapped inside hydropower tunnels, with around 900 workers still unaccounted for.
In more than seven decades of glacial lake outbursts, monsoon cloudbursts and Koshi embankment failures, the August 26 disaster is the latest and deadliest flood disaster in a generation. Between 1954 and August 26, 2026, more than 100 flood-related disasters have been recorded in Nepal.
Last year, in July 2025, a supra-glacial lake roughly 36 kilometres north of the Nepal-China border, at an altitude of around 5,150 metres, drained suddenly, sending a flash flood down the Lhende stream into Nepal's Rasuwa district. Roughly a month after the July 8 disaster, China and Nepal publicly agreed in principle to share cross-border information on glacial lake and flood risks, though no formal treaty was signed. The disaster underscores the need for stronger regional collaboration, with governments taking coordinated action to respond to cross-border disasters. China's information control could hamper flood rescue efforts in Tibet. In a situation where "only the Chinese government controls the information flow, that means that local residents, afraid of punishment, are not posting about where people are trapped or where the damage is the worst," alleges The New York Times.
The 46,000 glaciers, the vast permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau and its rivers are major sources of water for rivers across Asia. China's control of the Tibetan Plateau, the source of 10 major Asian rivers, including the Mekong, Irrawaddy, Ganges (Maja-khabab), Indus (Senge-khabab), Brahmaputra (Tachog-khabab) and Sutlej (Langchen-khabab), gives it unprecedented hydro-strategic leverage.
For India and Bangladesh, the Yarlung Tsangpo dam represents a clear and present danger. The river, known as the Siang in Arunachal Pradesh and the Brahmaputra in Assam, supports 130 million Indians downstream before becoming the Jamuna in Bangladesh, where it sustains 160 million people. On the Mekong, China's 12 cascade dams have demonstrably reduced downstream flows by up to 70 per cent during critical periods. Indian analysts fear similar manipulation could turn the Brahmaputra into a "water bomb", with sudden releases causing catastrophic flooding in Assam and Arunachal Pradesh. Bangladesh faces compounded risks, as only seven per cent of the Brahmaputra-Meghna-Ganges watershed lies within its territory, leaving it wholly dependent on upstream cooperation. The Brahmaputra carries 401 million tonnes of silt annually, replenishing Bangladesh's delta and sustaining its rice production. Chinese dams could trap this nutrient-rich sediment, devastating agricultural productivity and accelerating delta subsidence.
China is turning water into a strategic weapon. Rivers from Tibet feed more than 46 per cent of the people in Southeast Asia. Its water dams are becoming potential water bombs. China is now pursuing major inter-basin and inter-river water transfer projects on the Tibetan Plateau, which threaten to diminish international river flows into India and other co-riparian states, observes strategic expert Brahma Chellaney.
It may be recalled that, on the Indus Waters Treaty, a prominent Chinese commentator recently sparked a debate by warning India about its river waters. Speaking at a seminar in Islamabad, Victor Gao, vice president of the Beijing-based Center for China and Globalisation, suggested that if India tries to "weaponise" the Indus Waters Treaty against Pakistan, China has the power to do the same with rivers originating in Tibet. India held the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance as part of a package of punitive diplomatic and economic measures unveiled in April 2025 in response to the Pahalgam terror attack. Since it suspended the treaty, the Indian side has stepped up work on several hydropower projects in Jammu and Kashmir that Pakistan opposed under the provisions of the 1960 pact. In a statement, the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) said, "In a unanimous decision, the Court found that none of these grounds could justify suspension or termination of the Treaty. Accordingly, the Indus Waters Treaty remains fully in force, and India must observe its obligations under the Treaty, including those relating to the design and operation of its hydro-electric projects on the Western Rivers." In response, the MEA said the Hague-based court has no jurisdiction to pronounce on India's sovereign decisions and that the treaty will remain in abeyance.
As the 30-year Ganga water-sharing treaty between India and Bangladesh nears expiry by the end of this year, India should prepare its homework properly to maintain its cordial relations with Bangladesh. With the Teesta project in Bangladesh likely to be managed by China, India must develop a coordinated water treaty and ensure the timely exchange of critical data with China, without further delay, to avoid Nepal-like disasters.
Views expressed are personal. The writer is a professor of Business Administration
Published by HT Digital Content Services with permission from Millennium Post.