New Delhi, Sept. 25 -- Uttarakhand could see up to a 70 per cent decline in its smaller agroforestry patches, while larger farm hills might show a moderate 10-20 per cent reduction by 2050 under continued climate warming, according to research.

The decreases are most evident in mid-elevation zones and rain-fed agroforestry regions, where climatic stress is expected to intensify, findings published in the journal Discover Forests reveal.

Researchers from Dehradun's Doon University and Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR)-Central Agroforestry Research Institute in Jhansi, Uttar Pradesh analysed satellite images and field surveys to map agroforestry in the state today and what could happen to it by 2050.

"Results show that mid-altitudinal zones offer the highest suitability for agroforestry expansion, whereas small and fragmented systems exhibit reduced climate resilience under future projections," the authors wrote.

They said agroforestry systems -- increasingly recognised for their role in adapting to and mitigating climate change -- are vulnerable to effects of global warming.

The researchers found 105 distinct tree and 82 crop species, demonstrating a "high floristic richness".

Changes in temperature, precipitation and extreme events can alter tree and crop species' composition and ecosystems, the team said.

The systems are particularly important in the Indian Himalayan Region, where steep slopes, fragmented landholdings, and climatic variability can challenge conventional agriculture, the researchers said.

The region too has been found to be highly vulnerable and sensitive to climate change, with long-term observations showing trends of increases in temperature, altered precipitation patterns and elevation-dependent warming.

Mid-altitude zones between 1,100 metres and 1,600 metres in elevation and characterised by 20-30 degree slopes were found to be highly suitable for agroforestry expansion -- about 150 square kilometres in area.

Over 525 square kilometres of area was identified as 'moderately suitable' for hill farm expansion comprising under 10 degree slopes and between 1,600-2,100 metres elevation and characterised by moderate rainfall. Land less than 600 metres or above 2,100 metres in elevation was classified as least suitable for expansion.

Published by HT Digital Content Services with permission from Millennium Post.