Kuala Lampur, July 3 -- No matter how the upcoming Johor state election on July 11 unfolds, the results will almost certainly become fodder for speculation rather than a definitive test of the stability of the federal government in Putrajaya.

If Barisan Nasional were to secure an overwhelming victory of 53 seats out of the 56 seats in the Johor State Assembly, commentators would immediately argue that support for the coalition government led by Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim is eroding and that the balance of power within the federal administration has shifted decisively in favour of Umno.

Should BN instead emerge with a more modest majority of perhaps 35 seats, another interpretation would emerge just as quickly: that voters are endorsin...