SriLanka, June 8 -- World growth prospects have been hurt by the oil crisis prompted by the US-Iran war, Fitch Ratings says in its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO). This has led to Fitch lowering its 2026 forecast for global growth by 0.2pp to 2.4%.
Forecast cuts have been widespread as higher inflation squeezes real wages, dampens consumption and raises companies' input costs. But the impact of the oil shock on global activity is being cushioned by stronger-than-expected momentum in AI-related IT investment, supporting world trade and Asian exports.
We have lowered 2026 growth forecasts since the March GEO in the US and eurozone by 0.3pp and 0.4pp, respectively to 1.9% to 0.9%. Growth in emerging markets excluding China has been lowe...