India, June 28 -- I was asked an intriguing question the other day that set me thinking. To be honest, I'm not sure if it wasn't intended as a joke or, perhaps, to provoke. But it raised an issue that I had not up till then considered. Could Pakistan's PrimeMinister Shehbaz Sharif and, possibly, the country's chief of defence forces, FieldMarshal Asim Munir, be serious contenders for this year's Nobel Peace Prize? At the moment, I would question the word "serious", but contenders they could well be. It all depends on whether the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding holds and, more critically, leads to a credible and lasting peace deal. If either were to happen, they wouldbe serious contenders. Of that, I have little doubt. Whether they get the prize is,of course, another matter. We in India tend to dismiss Sharif and Munir as messengers, not mediators. That's unfair. The understanding that's been reached between Iran and the US, though fragile and tenuous, would not have been possible without their intercession. They explained, encouraged and, perhaps even, cajoled. They also put a lot of effort into it. They weren't simply carriers of messages and information. Let's, therefore, at this point, focus on the Memorandum of Understanding. The initial key concern is Lebanon. The 60-day ceasefire clearly covers the country. But Israel and Hezbollah continue to strike each other even though a ceasefire has been announced between them. Iran's foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said this is a clear breach of the deal and there is speculation that US-Iran talks failed to start on time because of the continuing fighting in Lebanon. So, could the deal still collapse? You can't really rule that out. The second key issue is the Strait of Hormuz. Both America and Iran have lifted their respective blockades but this simply takes us back to the status quo ante of February 27. So, what sort of achievement is that? It's more repair of the damage the war created than anything else. Second, after 60 days, Iran could start imposing fees. And, remember, Hormuz is now a weapon Iran can use again. It may. Iran has no doubt pledged never to produce or acquire nuclear weapons, but that has been its established position for decades. More importantly, will it forego its right to enrich? I doubt it. And certainly, the memorandum does not insist that Iran must send its enriched uranium out of the country. Instead, it settles for down-blending within the country under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency. So, has Trump failed to get what he wants? It certainly looks like it. That's also true of two other points. The memorandum doesn't mention Iran's ballistic missile capacity even though, in his February 28 speech, Trump insisted that it must be eliminated. Nor does it talk about Iran's support for what's called its proxies. Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis don't feature in the memorandum. Once again, these are minus points for Donald Trump. And don't even mention regime change. The Ayatollah-led government is intact and has survived. Which is why Trump isdealing with it. The memorandum is proof he's accepted that. Yet, Iran has already been given sanction waivers to sell its oil and its possible some of its assets could be unfrozen during the negotiation period. There's also a $300-billion reconstruction fund. Altogether,that's a lot of money for Iran. Trump's MAGA supporters don't like any of this. They're already complaining. America may object but, oddly enough, this could ensure that the memorandum sticks and some sort of deal could follow. If the Lebanon issue is adequately addressed, Iran has a vested interest in ensuring the memorandum succeeds. It gains substantially. And as for Trump's threat to restart bombing, it's not serious. Sharif and Munir clearly did not intend this. But that's how it's worked out. If I were them, I wouldn't keep my fingers crossed. That would be premature. But they are entitled to a smile of satisfaction. In these circumstances to even be nominated - but fail to win - would be a feather in their topi....