War could wipe out all 2025 growth of Arab countries: UN
United Nations/Amman, April 2 -- A month of war in West Asia could wipe out all the economic growth that Arab countries achieved last year, and will likely spark a "sharp economic contraction" in Iran, the United Nations said Tuesday.
A series of reports by the UN Development Programme (UNDP) came in the war's fifth week as all sides continue to exchange threats despite US claims that negotiations are ongoing.
"The recent military escalation in the Middle East is exposing the structural vulnerabilities of the Arab States region," the agency said, adding that "GDP is estimated to decline by approximately 3.7 to 6.0 percent" across the region.
That would represent a total GDP loss of $120 billion to $194 billion -- or more than "exceeds the cumulative regional GDP growth achieved in 2025."
For Iran, the agency said the conflict was likely "to trigger a sharp economic contraction," with economic simulations suggesting that "real GDP growth could decline by between 8.8 and 10.4 percentage points, relative to a no-war baseline scenario."
Its estimates also showed that 3.5 million to 4.1 million people could fall below the poverty line for Iran, potentially pushing up the poverty rate to 41 percent.
The war has already cost Arab countries $186 billion, a top UN official said Tuesday.
"We hope the fighting will stop tomorrow, as every day of delay has negative repercussions on the global economy," UN assistant secretary-general Abdallah Al Dardari told reporters in Amman.
Al Dardari, who is also a top UN official for the Arab region, said the countries of the oil-rich Gulf were shouldering the heaviest burden.
"The impact on GDP is very significant in the Gulf region, where it could reach $168 billion, and in the Levant region, where it could reach around $30 billion," he said.
The war that erupted with a United States-Israeli attack against Iran on February 28 spread quickly across the region, as Iran launched retaliatory attacks targeting Gulf countries and Israel.
Lebanon and Iraq have been drawn into the fighting, with pro-Iran groups launching attacks of their own on Israel and US interests.
Al Dardari warned against the Gulf's economic dependence on oil, saying the crisis around the vital waterway of the Strait of Hormuz had proved the need to diversify.
He also said there was a need to seek out routes other than the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas flowed pre-war....
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