New Delhi, June 18 -- With the West Asia war drawing to an end, India may see retail prices of edible oils easing by up to 10% in the coming months and then staying stable through the peak consumption season of festivals that starts August, said two people citing an assessment by an empowered group of officials and experts on managing inflation in the wake of the war. India is the world's top importer of edible oils. The government had set up seven empowered groups late March to assess the impact of the war and take remedial steps across sectors, including national security, external affairs, the economy, trade and supply chains, energy, fertilizers and farm inputs, prices of essential commodities, transport and logistics, and public communication. Edible oil prices are seen moderating with the opening up of the Strait of Hormuz easing freight and insurance costs and the higher palm oil production in Indonesia and Malaysia from July boosting supplies, the people cited above said. India imports about 55% of its edible oil requirement of roughly 27-28 million tonnes, with importers planning to accelerate purchases to replenish inventories ahead of the festive season. India imports palm oil from Indonesia and Malaysia, soybean oil from Argentina and Brazil and sunflower oil from Ukraine and Russia. The normalisation of petrochemicals supply chain operations will also bring relief on the price front. "Edible oil manufacturers primarily use PET bottles, HDPE containers and plastic packaging films, all of which are derived from petrochemicals," said one of the two people cited above, requesting anonymity. "The normalization of petrochemical supplies is expected to lower the cost of these packaging materials, helping reduce packaging expenses for edible oil companies and, in turn, moderate retail edible oil prices." India's edible oil prices have seen a significant rise in recent months reflecting the logistics and supply issues. Palm oil, the most-consumed imported edible oil, currently sells for Rs.147.36 per kg, up 12.2% from a year ago, soybean oil has risen 10.8% to Rs.162.51 a kg, while sunflower oil is up 17.1% to Rs.187.63 per kg. Higher global prices have inflated India's import bill, which is already under pressure due to a spike in energy prices. Palm oil imports rose 12% to $9.6 billion in FY26, while soybean oil imports jumped 23% to $6.2 billion. Improving supplies in the key markets may lead to a let-up in the pressure on imports. "From July onwards, palm oil supplies start arriving and gather pace from August to October," said the second person cited above. Even here, there is the shadow of diversion of supplies towards biofuels. "While concerns exist over the increasing diversion of palm oil toward biodiesel blending programmes in major producing countries such as Indonesia and Malaysia, the ongoing discussions are expected to ensure adequate edible oil supplies for the Indian market." Indonesia is set to kick off its B50 fuel blending programme from 1 July 2026, which means half the country's diesel would be palm oil. The edible oil industry says it will pass on the benefit of its easing costs to consumers. "The recent increase in retail edible oil prices has been driven by a combination of elevated freight and insurance costs, along with a surge in crude oil-linked raw material prices," said Sudhakar Desai, president of the Indian Vegetable oil Producers' Association (IVPA) and chief executive officer and president of Emami Agrotech Ltd, which sells edible oils under the Healthy & Tasty and Himani Best Choice brands. "As geopolitical conditions stabilize and maritime trade routes normalize, we anticipate logistics costs to ease. Coupled with reversal of domestic oil and gas price hikes, this could translate into softer domestic edible oil prices," Desai said. "The industry remains committed to ensuring that the benefits of lower input and transportation costs are passed on to consumers, while continuing to maintain supply stability across the value chain."...