India, June 24 -- At long last, India and the US can taste the sweet elixir of success on a trade deal, being on the verge of concluding an "interim agreement" that promises to set a stable course on tariffs for the near future as they move to the broader ambition of negotiations on a comprehensive bilateral trade agreement (BTA). It has been a long journey over a short period of time with plenty of ups and downs, but the negotiations are now in the endgame. After the last round of negotiations in India two weeks ago, it appears the two sides have largely concluded outcomes on the substance of a deal - as US ambassador to India Sergio Gor and commerce minister Piyush Goyal have phrased it, 99% is now complete even if trade negotiations are never an exact science. It is a clear win-win. With an agreement in place, the two countries will provide each other with true reciprocal access, on which they can build increased trade and investment. And when the final results are tallied, the two can realistically expect bilateral trade to grow to $500 billion a year, which has been a long-time promise in past joint statements but not a serious prospect until now. India exports more to the US than to any other market; with this deal, it can anchor its global export ambitions in the US market for the future. So, what could threaten this goal when it is clearly in the interests of both governments? Never have India and the US devoted so many man-hours of trade negotiations and so much political capital to strike a deal. The interim agreement will be unprecedented in the history of India-US economic relations and could provide new energy and purpose for deepening the strategic relationship, as well as pursuing the ultimate goal of a comprehensive BTA. Yet, there are risks before the deal is delivered. It goes without saying that this agreement won't be concluded in a vacuum, and there is likely to be plenty of criticism from quarters that have never really been in favour of a new India-US trade relationship. India has been clear that it expects a preferential tariff compared to others. But some countries in the region and globally may receive lower tariffs under Section 301 based on the two investigations that are pending - one on forced labour and the other on excess capacity. In the immediate region, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka are not covered by the excess capacity 301, so for the moment may face a lower tariff than India. While this could change if future 301 investigations are initiated by the US Trade Representative (USTR), none of these smaller economies should be viewed as a threat. They simply do not carry the economic and competitive heft of India. India is already a highly diversified economy in goods, services, and advanced technology, and its potential to expand and increase its exports is already well established. Instead, India should focus on its competitive position vis-a-vis other big and growing economies, particularly Southeast Asia, East Asia, and China. It certainly is not in India's long-term interests to face higher tariffs than these countries. If it is measuring outcomes in terms of preferential tariffs, the appropriate comparison is with them. Likewise, the US should be prepared to offer India lower tariffs and additional exceptions to cement its emerging role as the most important strategic partner in the Indo-Pacific. The final terms of the interim agreement and opportunities ahead in the next phases of the BTA should reflect this imperative. The bilateral relationship suffered too much in the darkest moments of the relationship last year. This is the moment to seize victory from the jaws of defeat with a true mold-breaking trade deal....