India, April 30 -- Two months into the ongoing war in West Asia, the geo-economic churn has led to an outcome that wasn't expected. On Tuesday, the UAE announced its exit from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), perhaps the world's most significant economic cartel, which produces and exports around one-third and half of global crude oil. Numbers are larger if one considers the extended club of OPEC+ countries. UAE's exit from OPEC matters because it directly challenges the quasi-controlling status of its bigger neighbour Saudi Arabia, in deciding oil production and, consequently, prices. UAE has had past differences with the Saudis over production quotas and has been eyeing a higher production. The disruption from the ongoing Strait of Hormuz closure might have been the proverbial last straw that forced it to leave the cartel. Intra-OPEC dynamics aside, what does this mean for the rest of the world, including India? Oil prices have barely moved after the UAE's decision. And this is expected, given that the ongoing supply shock originates from a maritime blockade rather than producers withholding production which is where OPEC really matters. Longer-term, if the UAE were to bring its extra barrels to the market, prices could come down. Anything which lowers crude prices long-term is good news for India. To be sure, it is early days to write off OPEC yet. At the same time, it will be myopic to see the UAE-Saudi rupture as just some dispute over who gets to sell how many crude barrels. At the heart of the ongoing dispute is geopolitics, not economics. UAE has been one of the most pro-Israel and US and anti-Iran voices in the ongoing conflict. They have also had simmering tensions with the Saudis over other territorial conflicts such as in Yemen. Unless peace and economic normalcy are restored soon both the UAE and Saudi economy will continue to suffer and make politics and diplomacy insecure. India's stakes in these two feuding Arab kingdoms goes beyond the price of a crude barrel. It has a huge diaspora in both countries, has trade relations beyond just energy and in the more recent past has also been hoping to attract investments from these countries. With the tectonic plates moving in the region, India should watch things closely and choose to err on the side of caution than hastily drawn conclusions or proclamations....