New Delhi, Sept. 15 -- The withdrawal of the southwest monsoon is expected to commence by the end of this week - from September 19 onwards, with the all-India monsoon deficit currently standing at -15%, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Monday, noting that the current monsoon was severely impacted by a strengthening El Nino, leaving several districts in the western, southern and northeastern part of the country in a rainfall deficit, which is unlikely to be bridged back. The retreat of the monsoon commences from west Rajasthan from around September 19, where the normal date of withdrawal is September 17. Last year, the withdrawal began as early as September 14. However, Met officials said several parts of the country should see a flurry of rain activity this week, particularly in the west, northwest and parts of the south peninsular region. It said a low pressure area exists over southwest Madhya Pradesh, southeast Rajasthan and north Gujarat; a trough across Jharkhand, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh and MP, while an upper air cyclonic circulation was over Bay of Bengal, near Odisha and West Bengal. "Conditions are becoming favourable for withdrawal of Southwest Monsoon from some parts of West Rajasthan around September, 19, 2026," the IMD said in a statement, forecasting fairly widespread rains over Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan and Muzaffarabad from September 15-17; across Punjab, Haryana and Delhi on 16 and 17; isolated activity across west and east Rajasthan from September 15-17. Isolated scattered rains are also likely across Uttar Pradesh till September 18, it said. Down south, Isolated heavy spells are likely over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal till September; over Kerala and Mahe till September 16, over south Karnataka on September 15 and along coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana from September 18-20. In central India, isolated showers are expected over Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Vidharbha till September 20. In east India, fairly widespread activity is likely over West Bengal and Sikkim till September 20, over Bihar on September 16-17 and Odisha from September 19-20. The all India monsoon deficit had touched -40% in June before widespread rains in July brought the deficit down to -13% at the end of July. It was -14% at the end of August and stood at -15% overall, as of September 13. The deficit is largest in the south peninsula region (-28%), followed by east and northeast India (-25%). It is at -6% in central India and -10% in northwest India. Among the states in a deficit-and unlikely to make a recovery-included key agrarian states like Punjab (-40%), Haryana (-23%), Rajasthan (-25%), Bihar (-35%), Karnataka (-29%), Kerala (-27%), Telangana (-20%), Andhra Pradesh (-43%), Tamil Nadu (-26%), Arunachal Pradesh (-42%) and Meghalaya (-59%), data shows. The IMD had on August 31 issued its forecast for September and said below normal rainfall (<91% of long period average (LPA)) was likely. The forecast had a fortnight after the private weather forecaster Skymet Weather had on August 17 issued a revised forecast for the southwest monsoon season. It had said the monsoon rainfall should be 85% of the long period average (LPA), with a 70% probability of drought. In its initial forecast issued in April, Skymet had forecast the monsoon to be 94% of the LPA. The IMD in its April forecast had said the monsoon was likely to be 92% below the LPA this year. However, in its June outlook, it had revised this forecast downward - from 92% to 90% - and attached a 60% probability to a deficient season. Mahesh Palawat, vice president at Skymet said conditions look ideal for the withdrawal to commence by the end of this week. "We expect it to happen by September 20. Some decent rain is likely in the region before that," he said....