India, Oct. 6 -- Bihar is immersed in politics even in the times of festivities. For Biharis, there's no better pastime than politics. Over the last two decades, Bihar has coined a new adage - power follows where Nitish Kumar tilts. This is why, despite the BJP's growing tendency to edge out its alliance partners, it is content being the junior partner in the state. Even Lalu Prasad Yadav's RJD faced the same predicament when it was in an alliance with Nitish's JD(U). Any party that's not with Nitish may apparently spew venom against him, but secretly fervently desires an alliance with him. This is the reason Lalu joined hands with Nitish in 2022 even after a bitter split in 2017. During the two Mahagathbandhan stints, BJP leaders publicly vowed never to ally with Nitish. However, today they are readying themselves to face the assembly elections with their "natural partner" for the third time in the state. How has Nitish emerged as this talisman of electoral victory in Bihar? In 2005, when he became the Bihar chief minister (CM), he dedicated all his energies to maintaining law and order, improving the quality of roads, electricity supply, transport and education. In 2006, he launched the School Chalo Abhiyan to push admissions and attendance, distributing bicycles to girl students. Thus began a silent revolution: In 2005, mere 1.8 lakh girls appeared for the class 10th exams in the state, while, this year, more than half of the 15.85 lakh students appearing for the 10th board exams were girls. Nitish was also the first to launch a programme to provide everyone with a house and water connection but couldn't succeed. Even today, society is bogged down by migration issues and the state is at the bottom of the list for many human and development indices. Due to many reasons, Nitish's third and fourth term weren't very effective. In a democracy, you can't drive perpetually in the fourth gear. This time around, he's being attacked from various quarters and his health is under the scanner. It would be interesting to see how many seats the JD(U) secures in the upcoming Assembly elections.The party is facing a slow but sure attrition of its cadre. It needs the RJD or the BJP to get past the victory line. This is why, this time, the Nitish government has transferred Rs.10,000 each to the accounts of one crore women and announced a flurry of concessions and doles. Can it return to power riding the wave of goodies doled out since June this year? Nitish's main rival, Tejashwi Yadav, performed brilliantly in the last elections. His Mahagathbandhan lost the elections by a mere 16,825 votes. He still enjoys the support of the Congress and the Left parties. Despite his own diminished vote base, Rahul Gandhi tried to strengthen Tejashwi's position during his yatra. The Left's Dipankar Bhattacharya, Samajwadi Party's Akhilesh Yadav, Shiv Sena's Sanjay Raut, DMK's MK Stalin, JMM's Hemant Soren and Yusuf Pathan from the Trinamool Congress joined his yatra to signal that the entire Opposition is behind him. However, the excessive ambitions of his associates and family members is posing a huge challenge. Right now, a slugfest is on in the Mahagathbandhan over seat-sharing. But, it is also true that this happens every time and there's no doubt all the alliance partners will fight the elections together. The new voter list issued by the Election Commission saw 69 lakh voters removed and 21 lakh new ones added. For months, the Mahagathbandhan has been making it a political issue. Still, the NDA's strong caste calculations and government doles make the suspense over whom the voter will prefer even more acute. Prashant Kishor and his Jan Suraaj party are another factor. He shot to the limelight with election management services rendered not just to the BJP in the run-up to the 2014 elections, but also, later, to the Congress, YSR Congress, Trinamool Congress, Aam Admi Party, DMK, and even Nitish Kumar. In the poll fray this time, he has organised padyatras (foot marches) in every district of the state. During the last one year, he has covered almost all the regions of the state meeting people and staying overnight in villages. Kishor has attacked Nitish, the BJP, and the RJD in equal measure. He's attracting large crowds and his coffers are surprisingly full. Will he be able to form the government or be the kingmaker in case of a hung assembly? Large crowds and attractive slogans are necessary for victory, but they don't guarantee a win. Let's also mention the BJP. The saffron party has the ablest organisation and strongest caste calculation. Chiraj Paswan, Jitan Ram Manjhi and Upendra Kushwaha, along with JD(U), make the NDA a formidable alliance. In the last elections, the BJP won more than twice the number of seats, compared to JD(U) and yet couldn't push its own CM candidate. Lack of a credible face is its biggest weakness in the state. Sooner or later, the party will have to take a tough call on this issue. It will have to upset age-old relations with its allies and local leaders. Bihar is entering in an interesting phase. The assembly elections promise to go down to the wire. But the real game will commence once the dust on the electoral duel settles and the final tally is out....